The phrase “Net Zero Carbon Emissions” came as international scientific consensus that, in order to prevent the worst climate damages, global net human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) need to fall by about 45 percent from 2010 levels by 2030, reaching net zero around 2050. Global warming is proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions, which means that the planet will keep heating for as long as global emissions remain more than zero. This implies that climate damages, caused by global heating, will continue escalating for as long as emissions continue.
The key target is all gas and coal expansion must stop. A net zero target is also fundamentally incompatible with new coal or gas.
Nigeria with Net Zero Emissions or Energy Transition
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) said Nigeria is fully committed to the COP 26 agreement (Net Zero), having pledged to achieve net-zero targets by the year 2060. The commission stated that Nigeria was adopting a phase-down approach to transiting to cleaner sources of energy and committed to achieving a low carbon footprint.
Read: All You Need to Know About Zet Zero Emission
Net Zero 2050 or 2060 target is achievable for serious minded countries, what about unserious countries like Nigeria that her economic and social performance heavily rely on Oil and Gas? Oil alone accounts for 40 percent of the country’s GDP, 70 percent of budget revenues, and 95 percent of foreign exchange earnings. Nigeria’s dependence on petroleum is much greater than that of many other major producing countries.
The question is how will a country that has oil and gas is 70 percent of budget revenues and 95 percent of foreign exchange earnings run this 5,000 meters race in 6 seconds?
More questions to ask about Nigerian Net Zero 2060 target.
There are 7 attributes to meet Net Zero Emission target by any economy. Has Nigerian shown any concern of any of these attributes? Is there any technological structure on ground to birth this pledge? Can we liken President Buhari Net Zero 2060 pledge to President Obasanjo 10,000MW 2007 pledge? President Obasanjo pledged that Nigeria will generate 10,000MW power between 1999 to 2007 with a total budget USD16 billion. And after about 15 years later, Nigeria is boosting of 3,500MW. In April 13, 2021, Vanguard Newspaper wrote “Nigeria’s power generation dropped to 3,567.30 megawatts”. All hopes are not lost as Climate Change bill was signed into law in 2021.
Nigeria is not only facing a challenge of being a dump ground for second hand cars, refrigerators, generators and many other major sources of Carbon dioxide but Nigeria is leading in Gbone Fire activities (illegal oil refineries and bunkering) in the world.
The new Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) that was signed into by law Mr. Buhari few months ago and was suspended few weeks later. The Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) was signed into law by Mr. Buhari few months ago. Sadly, the major structures of the new signed PIB were indefinitely suspended few weeks it was signed into law, leaving everybody with no hope with energy transmission.
More Challenge to Nigerian Energy Transition Plan
How can Nigeria Energy Transition plan be in place where McKinsey report stated that Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles remain a veritable source of emissions in Nigeria as well as in other African nations, noting that with the country and the continent becoming a dumping ground for such high emission machines, the net zero target was endangered.
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It stated that “Of all used vehicles, 40 per cent end up in Africa, while more than 80 per cent of all four wheeler vehicles are end up in sub-Saharan Africa with the average price of a used vehicle being $6,000 to $10,000,”.
Why is Energy Transition Important?
Climate change isn’t a tap we can turn off once we stop using fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide, the main contributor to climate change, will stay in the atmosphere and keep heating the planet for years and years.
So reducing greenhouse gas emissions is hugely important, but we can’t stop there. The end goal is to balance the scales again, and restore the global climate to pre-climate change levels. To get there, we need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to zero AND then get cracking on repairing past harm by drawing down past emissions.
Why is Net zero Emissions targets Came Up so sudden?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s recent report was described as a code red for humanity. This report made it clear to the world’s governments the vital importance of getting to net zero as fast as possible and setting strong interim targets. This has seen many more governments — local, state, national and other stakeholders — around the world set their own net zero goals.
Many developed countries have now set net zero emissions targets. The US, EU, UK, Australia and Japan have all committed to net zero emissions by 2050, and China has committed to net zero by 2060.
Sadly, impacts will still worsen after we reach net zero due to the inertia in the climate system. Net zero describes the point in time when humans stop worsening climate change.
How can Nigeria achieve Energy Transition Target?
The Federal Ministry of Environment has presented a roadmap for Nigeria to achieve net zero including the scale of financing, renewables to be deployed and the importance of transition fuels.
Nigeria Achievements on Net Zero Emission so Far
The Minister of State for Environment stated that to “meet Nigerian Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target and fast track low carbon development pledges to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Nigerian Sovereign Green Bond was issued in line with our Economic Recovery Growth Plan (ERGP).”
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The Minister of State for Environment explained that these Green Bonds are used in financing environmentally friendly projects through debts tied to sustainability targets.
Brief On Nigeria’s Green Bonds
As at 2021, Nigeria’s green bonds market has hits $136 million within three years with four issuances recorded since the debut issuance by the Federal Government.
In 2017, the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX), collaborated with the Ministry of Finance and other stakeholders to launch the first Climate Bond Initiative certified sovereign bond valued at N10.69 billion.
According to the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX), the issuances and listings include the N10.69 billion, 13.48 per cent five-year sovereign green bond issued in 2017 by the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN); the N15 billon 15.5 per cent 5-year fixed rate senior unsecured green bond issued by Access Bank of Nigeria Plc.
Others are N8.5 billion 15.6 per cent 15-year guaranteed fixed rate senior green infrastructure bond by North South Power Company (NSP) and the series II N15 billion 14.5 per cent FGN 7-year sovereign green bond in 2019 which recorded a 220 per cent subscription rate (oversubscribed by N17.93 billion).
Other achievements, in collaboration with the Energy Commission of Nigeria through the support and expertise of the UK government, Nigeria have launched the Nigeria Energy Calculator, as a tool for generating evidence to support intelligent policy making around energy and climate change.
In December 2021, Nigeria launched the Deep Decarbonization project with the support of the French Development agency (AFD). This project is a National research and capacity development project for the implementation of a Deep Decarbonisation pathway program for Nigeria.
Another system Nigeria has adopted NEWMAP program, it was born by the Department of Erosion and Flood Control as an initiative to solving the astronomical ecological challenges and dwindling funding of erosion projects in the Ministry.
NEWMAP is a World Bank funded project that adopts the Integrated Watershed Management Approach, aimed at addressing the menace of gully erosion and other forms of land degradation with the objective to reduce vulnerability to soil erosion.
Under NEWMAP, 56 sites completed; 23,829 hectares of degraded land reclaimed, 75 erosion sites reduced in severity, surpassed target of 55 sites, 25,491 households directly benefitted from Project, and Storm-water Master plans developed.”
The ministry also said that they have established a web based flood early warning systems (FEWS) showing 307 locations across Nigeria; installed 17 community based FEWS stations nationwide in Ondo, Bayelsa, Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Osun, Lagos, Jigawa, Sokoto and Oyo states.
How to Achieve Net Zero.
To achieve Net Zero, Nigeria needs to stop all gas and coal project expansion. It is vital that we replace all fossil fuels use as quickly as possible, meet all of our energy needs with renewables and take concrete action to restore damaged landscapes, promote resilience of those living on the land and repair past harm to the atmosphere.
When Will Nigeria Achieve Net Zero Emissions?
Every new tone of greenhouse gas is heating the planet further. The sooner the world stops adding greenhouse gas to the atmosphere, the better.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in order to honor the Paris Agreement and limit global warming to well below 2 degrees (and pursue efforts to limit that increase to only 1.5 degrees!), global carbon emissions should reach net zero by 2050 at the latest. Over 100 countries have already pledged to do this.
However on its own, reaching net zero in 2050 is nowhere near enough. To help limit global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees, the whole world would need to reduce emissions by 7% per year every single year between 2020 and 2030. Even limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees would require annual global reductions of greenhouse gas emissions of 2.6% percent per year.
In Nigeria, considering many bottle necks facing her energy transition currently, given our very high emissions, energy poverty, wastage of resources in many, but doggedness to achieve unbelievable goals when we determined. Nigeria has the potential to attain renewable energy in the near future but by 2060 as pledged. It could take Nigeria 2100 to achieve Net Zero Emission. But, how will the environment look like before then.
What does a Good Net Zero Emissions Target look like?
Based on the guide developed by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), there are key measures that need to be used to determine whether a net zero target measures up:
Is it about now?
Reducing emissions this decade is critical if we are to avoid locking in the most catastrophic impact. Any long-term net zero target must also be complemented by an interim target
Is there a credible plan?
Any net zero target must be accompanied by a clear plan of immediate and longer-term action, and must not just rely on offsetting
Is it fast enough?
The target must reduce emissions quickly enough this decade and ensure our nation is doing its fair share
Can we see progress?
Will the target be reported on publicly at least annually?
Will it cover all emissions?
The target must cover all greenhouse gases and cover all sectors of the economy
Based on the latest science, professionals have recommended that Nigeria should cut emissions by 25% by every 10 years so as to reach the net zero emissions target by 2060 as Nigeria pledged.
This gives us the best chance of avoiding catastrophic climate consequences.