In this post we will be looking a Climate Change on agriculture, Tackling Soil Erosion, Climate Change measurement (average rainfall) population growth and grain production.
INTRODUCTION
There is need for sustainable agriculture to meet the increasing demand for food for the growing population in Nigeria. In order to ensure food security, we need to understand the climatic changes around us and how it affects agricultural productivity and rural livelihood. Climate change and global warming is the current global problem many countries are facing. Emission of greenhouse gases is responsible for global warming and subsequent climate variability.
The emission of greenhouse gases from gas flaring, open burning, vehicle emissions, deforestation, and use of solid fossil fuel for cooking are some of the causes of climate change in Nigeria. Nigeria is still practicing rain fed agriculture which renders her vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Extreme climatic events such as flooding, extreme heat, and drought has led to soil degradation which results in low crop yields. Decline in agricultural productivity discourages the farmers and may lead to change in livelihood especially in the rural settings.
This can also lead to migration from rural to urban regions thereby affecting development of rural regions in the country. Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods (that may range from decides to millions of years). It is usually caused by factors such as: biotic processes (such as humans, animals, etc), variations in solar radiations received by earth, volcanic eruptions etc. Climate change has repercussions such as upsetting seasonal cycles, harming ecosystems and water supply,
Climate Change on agriculture
Climate change increases the frequency and severity of floods and droughts. It causes drastic changes in rainfall patterns with rising temperatures which introduces unfavorable growing conditions; it modifies growing seasons which could subsequently reduce productivity. Climate is the primary determinant of affecting agricultural farming systems and food production, causing sea-levels to rise etc. agricultural productivity.
Nigeria is currently experiencing increasing incidence of disease, declining agricultural productivity, increasing number of heat waves, unreliable weather patterns, declining rainfall in already desert prone areas, in the north causing increasing desertification decreasing food production in central regions and destruction of livelihoods by rising water in coastal areas where people depend on fishing and farming. Climate change may change the types, frequencies and intensities of various crops and livestock pests, also the availability and timing of irrigation water supplies and the severity of soil erosion, Livestock are also affected by climate change, they can be affected in two ways: the quality and amount of forage from grasslands. The qualities of grasses are affected by higher temperatures, which may lead to drying up of grasses, thereby reducing the nutritional values of livestock feeds.
Tackling Soil Erosion
Increasing climate variability in Nigeria is causing more intense and untimely rainfall. Adding to land degradation, flash floods, landslides, and gully erosion have worsened across one of the ten most vulnerable countries to climate change impacts. By 2009, an estimated 6,000 gullies were destroying roads, highways, pipelines, and houses across rural and urban Nigeria. Many Nigerians lived in fear and despair due to these extreme weather events. Sudden, unpredictable, and uncontrollable floods erode the soil, and the loss of life and property is a nightmare for many Nigerians. “It destroys crops, farms, lands and houses. We used to have a cocoa plantation, but the erosion swept it away,” said Michael Igboria, of Edo State in Southern Nigeria.
Climate Change measurement (average rainfall) population growth and grain production.
Population growth and food production (grain production). The climate change scenarios (1971-2000) analysis revealed that population growth during the 1st -2nd scenarios (1971-1980 & 1981-199increased by 58.04%, while food production during the same period increased by 68.69% (Tab However, in the 3rd scenario, analysis revealed a decline in food production by 76.92% as population continues to grow. This portrays an alarming situation that food production does not keep pace with population growth. Average rainfall according to the study reflects a fairly steady growth during these periods. This finding corroborated with other past studies that at this period, 1981-1990; poverty levels in the country recorded the highest (CBN 2006).
However, grains production and rainfall have been declining. For instance, in the Northern regions there is a decline in food production to about 178.37% with high deficit recorded in the North West zone of the country (339%). The Southern part shows a decline of about 20%, while the South-south recorded a high decline (281%). The impact of climate change or global warming (as captured by average rainfall) revealed that all the Northern regions experienced decline (11.03%) during period under review (1971-2000), with North West region most affected (13.32%).
The Southern region however, climate change (as captured by average rainfall) shows a beneficial response with the exception of South east that recorded a decline (9.09%), while the South west show a high figure of 20.58% and South-south of 2.45%. Findings indicate that the agricultural impacts of climate hange in Nigeria need a holistic and quickly interventions. The total average impact may be positive or negative depending on the climate scenarios and zones. They are positive in the South particularly in the Southwest in most scenarios, but negative in the North in some scenarios.
Conclusion
Agricultural impacts of climate change in Nigeria are uncertain. The total average impact may be positive or negative depending on the climate scenario. But in most scenarios, it was shown that climate change will have an overall positive impact on Nigeria’s agriculture. Impacts also vary both quantitatively and qualitatively by zone and season. They are positive in the Southern region of Nigeria in most scenarios, but negative in some Northern part of the country in some scenario. Farmers appear to be abandoning monocropping for mixed and mixed crop-livestock systems, considering risky, mono-cropping practicing under dry land. Farming experience and access to education were found to promote adaptation. This implies that education to improve awareness of potential benefits of adaptation is an important policy measure for future adaptation and mitigation strategies.