In this post “Nigerian Credibility to Meet Net Zero 2060 Target“, we will be looking at the chances for Nigeria to meet her energy transition target by the year 2060. The political will and economical structure to meet the target, also some of the challenges Nigerian government must overcome in other to meet Net Zero emission target as promised.
During the climate change conference in Glasgow in 2021, President Buhari pledged that Nigeria’s plans to achieve Net Zero Emission Target by 2060. How credible could this target be as a credible energy transition commitment must entail a detailed plan for reducing emissions and increasing carbon sinks.
There are 7 attributes to meet Net Zero Emission target by any economy. Has Nigerian shown any concern of any of these attributes? Is there any technological structure on ground to birth this pledge? Can we liken President Buhari Net Zero 2060 pledge to President Obasanjo 10,000MW 2007 pledge? President Obasanjo pledged that Nigeria will generate 10,000MW power between 1999 to 2007 with a total budget USD16 billion. And after about 15 years later, Nigeria is bosting of 3,500MW. In April 13, 2021, Vanguard News paper wrote “Nigeria’s power generation dropped to 3,567.30 megawatts”. All hopes are not lost as Climate Change bill was signed into law in 2021.
Read: More About Net Zero Emission
The right approach Nigeria should adopt would have been to commit to energy transition by 2060, set out a detailed pathway to decarbonising the economy and ask for financial support to do so.
Challenges of Energy Transition in Nigeria
Nigerian Vice President Yemi Osinbajo has said that to reach Nigeria’s commitment to net-zero emissions by 2060, the country will require no fewer than $10 billion per year for next 40 years to fund the vision.
Regarding the cost implications of reaching net-zero emissions by 2060 in line with the President’s announcement at COP26 in Glasgow, Osinbajo said, “Our net-zero 2060 pathway also requires around USD 10 billion per year of funding over the next 40 years across the country’s economy, and most of this will be for the power sector.
Nigerian Economic Strenght on Energy Transition
On the other hand, McKinsey & Company report Nigeria’s chances of a net zero target remain hobbled, with over 40 per cent of all used vehicles distributed worldwide coming into three African countries led by Nigeria.
A McKinsey & Company report on the continent’s effort at meeting the emissions reduction goal further indicated that 80 per cent of all four-wheeler vehicles end up in sub-Saharan Africa.
Read: Plan to Convert Flared Gas to Ammonia
But the McKinsey report stated that Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles remain a veritable source of emissions in Nigeria as well as in other African nations, noting that with the country and the continent becoming a dumping ground for such high emission machines, the net zero target was endangered.
It stated that “Of all used vehicles, 40 per cent end up in Africa, while more than 80 per cent of all four wheeler vehicles are end up in sub-Saharan Africa with the average price of a used vehicle being $6,000 to $10,000,”.
Nigerian government said in Glasgow that detailed plans are in place to meet the net zero target. Buhari pointed specifically to the revised National Policy on Climate Change, NPCC, approved last June and the updated Nationally Determined Contribution, NDC, submitted to the UN last July.
In the updated NDC, Nigeria promised to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20 per cent (unconditionally) and 47 per cent (conditionally) by 2030. But neither the revised NPCC nor the updated NDC represents a detailed net zero plan because neither sets out ambitious emission-reduction measures.
Climate Change bill that was signed into law in 2021 would still not induce climate action credibility because of Nigeria’s unwillingness to wean itself of fossil fuels. As President Buhari announced the energy transition pledge in Glasgow, he also said that Nigeria would continue to burn gas to generate electricity.
What’s more, although less mentioned these days, there was also a plan to revive Nigeria’s coal sector, and, as we know, the Petroleum Industry Act sets aside 30 per cent of NNPC’s profits to fund oil and gas exploration in the frontier basins.
So, basically, at COP26, Nigerian government was saying: yes, Nigeria wants to reach net zero by 2060, but we would continue to burn fossil fuels and want rich countries to help fund our hydrocarbon projects.
That flies in the face of the G7 countries’ decision to stop funding oil, coal and gas projects overseas, and ignores the International Energy Agency’s view that investments in oil, coal and gas projects must end for the world to reach net-zero global emissions by 2050 and limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Read: Nigerian Stakeholder’s Net Zero Emission Targets
Truth is, although Nigeria needs considerable international support to become a net zero economy, it won’t get that support unless it seriously commits to weaning itself from fossil fuels.
That’s South Africa’s approach. Coal accounts for 77 per cent of South Africa’s energy mix, but the country has committed to energy transition by 2050 and has set out plans to decommission and repurpose its coal-fired power stations. In response, the US, the EU and the UK agreed to provide $8.5bn to help South Africa switch from coal to green energy.
So far, Nigeria has no such credible plan. The energy sector accounts for 60 per cent of Nigeria’s total emissions. That sector needs to be radically decarbonised with shifts to renewables and electric vehicles. But Nigeria is still paying lip service to low-carbon energy generation, and, despite the hype about assembling electric vehicles, there’s no pathway to phasing out the 11.5m combustive emission vehicles in circulation.
Then, there’s livestock breeding, particularly cattle, which accounts for about 13 per cent of total emissions. In a country that values cows more than humans, can Nigeria ever raise climate-friendly cows? Doubtful!
More Issues with Nigeria Energy Transition Plan
The World Bank reported that Nigeria was highly vulnerable to the global economic disruption caused by COVID-19, particularly due to the decline in oil prices. Oil accounts for over 80 per cent of exports, a third of banking sector credit, and half of government revenues.
In 2018, 40 per cent of Nigerians (83 million people) lived below the poverty line, while another 25 per cent (53 million) were vulnerable.
The number of Nigerians living below the international poverty line is expected to rise by 12 million between 2019 and 2023.
The Nigerian Government View About Net Zero Emission
Mr Buhari in one of his statements said: “For today’s 1.3 billion Africans, access to low-cost and reliable energy is the highest of all possible concerns. Estimated to rise to 2.5 billion by 2050—by 2100 Nigeria alone is projected to have the second-largest population on the planet—this “great doubling” (for Nigeria, quadrupling) has the right to more dependable electricity than their forebears.”
He warned that without extra and stable power, Africa cannot build the factories that will transform it from a low-job, extractives-led economy to a high employment middle-income continent.
“Children cannot learn for longer and better by battery light any more than by candlelight. No more than the Africa of today, the Africa of tomorrow cannot advance using energy production that intermittently delivers,” he wrote.
Mr Buhari said the most alternative of energy sources that the developed nations are introducing are often the most unreliable.
Apart from President Buhari, Nigeria’s Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo, has said in the same tone and sentiments that the decision of developed economies to defund the oil and gas sector is an unfair decision considering how much profits they have made from the sector before now.
Mr Osinbajo said after decades of profiting from oil and gas, a growing number of wealthy nations have banned or restricted public investment in fossil fuels, including natural gas.
He said such policies “often do not distinguish between different kinds of fuels, nor do they consider the vital role some fuels play in powering the growth of developing economies, especially in sub-Saharan Africa”.
Read: Gas Flaring Issues in Nigeria
He argued that although all countries must play their part in the fight against climate change, a global transition away from carbon-based fuels must account for the economic differences between countries and allow for multiple pathways to net-zero emissions.
“For countries such as my own, Nigeria, which is rich in natural resources but still energy poor, the transition must not come at the expense of affordable and reliable energy for people, cities, and industry. On the contrary, it must be inclusive, equitable, and just—which means preserving the right to sustainable development and poverty eradication, as enshrined in global treaties such as the 2015 Paris climate accord,” he said.
Some of the Bridges to Net Zero Emission for Nigeria
- Political willpower
- Lack of knowledge of Climate change Reality
- Economical bridge
- Financial strength
- Lack Technology
- etc
To conclude, as at today, Nigeria as a nation does not have willingness and does not have upto 10% of what it will take in every area of her life to embark into Net Zero Emission target even in the next 80 years to come.
Even if developed countries are committed to the USD 10 billion per year funding over the next 40 years in Nigeria as Osibanjo said, yet the net zero emission in 2060 can not be credible because snake that swallowed 16billion dollars meant for 10,000MW since 2007 and other such hug funds has not died or left Nigeria and there is no willingness for the long-aged snake to die or leave Nigeria.